Ham would veto. Merc would have seen the Macca year and wouldn't want it either. Predictions for '17: After 4 races everyone settles in. RB get closer to Merc but it's still the Lewis Hamilton show. Ferrari continue to flounder in 3rd, possibly 4th. Vettel increasingly angst. LH for 4th world title Williams in huge trouble Sauber look to bow out McHonda remain a mid-table team Renault only get a little better but only because Haas go backwards Nico wishes he staying in a FI, constantly shows up Palmer though Increasingly a 2 tier formula.
I've got everything crossed for Alonso to get the drive, although I think there's weight behind the idea of Bottas being released to Merc, and Werhlein+Engines to Williams. As an outside bet, Merc manage to get Hulkenberg from Renault somehow and end up with a decent German driver, who wouldn't rock the boat as much a Vettel.
If Williams would let Bottas go they would pretty much end up with two inexperienced drivers though. I suspect it will be either Wehrlein going to Mercedes (since he can't object to being treated as no 2) or one of the Red Bull / Toro Rosso drivers, simply put Red Bull has its fingers in a lot of the lesser racing series, so they could easily get their hands on a replacement.
I can see Merc wanting a designated no.2 driver for a season or two, so giving Wehrlein a seat could be a solid move. I don't think Hulkenberg is anything more than a safe pair of hands at best.
Outside of the big 4, Very few of the drivers been mensioned would be anything but a designated number 2 driver though. Carlos Sains would be my guess from toro, if going that route. If they cannot get Bottas, Wehrlein is the default option. The small problem for Wehrlein is he will get battered by Lewis. If Merc still have a significant pace advantage he could use it to finish 2nd or 3rd. Would be bad for F1 if Merc care about such things. Shumacher style championship. Do Merc think they will still be as quick and ahead. If so we want a competitive second driver.
I suspect Williams will take a windfall payment from Merc for letting him go. The field Wehlien + another William jr Frank has been watching.
I think Wehrlein is the no-brains option for Merc. Young, eager to race, willing to take "b*tch seat* if required, and not contractually bound. The question is: is he fast in an F1 car? Another option may be Perez to Merc, Wehrlein to FIndia... but I think that's less likely. Alonso - the pairing would have history that's less than pleasant. Plus, McLaren won't let go of their experienced driver in a year with sweeping car changes. Vettel - well, Ferrari would let Vettel go (IMHO), but the money would have to be right. Which begs the question of whether Merc can motivate TWO ridiculously priced drivers and the overhead of managing two WDC contenders (that applies to Alonso as well). Button back - errm... I don't think it's likely. My prediction: Pascal Wehrlein to Merc for 2017, on a 1-year contract, merc keeping a driver-swap with Ocon open.
Merc probably have a fair amount of negotiating power with any teams running customer engines, so Perez is a possibility. However I too think Wehrlein is about to get a frikkin awesome xmas present, albeit only for one year. I don't see Alonso or Vettel being compatible with Hamilton, even though I would LOVE to see either one of them in the same car. Button has already said he doesn't want to race next year - maybe he means he does't want to race in a McLaren next year, but it sounded like he'd lost the hunger for it and has bowed out on his own terms.
Yeah... Button having lost the hunger is the feeling I got as well. I'd LOVE to see Vettel at Merc (more than Alonso). But that hassle of managing two "superstars" is not worth it.
Pretty much Guarenteed it wont be Alonso or Vettel who have both denied the link. McLaren have gone as far as to say they would not let alonso leave period. Driver will come from a Mercedes engine team where they have some leverage. Or young driver.
https://joesaward.wordpress.com/2016/12/06/reality-in-brackley/ Joe Saward has some interesting insights, and he reckons Bottas or Grosjean to be the obvious picks.
The building is too intact for Maldonado. On a related note. http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/38282791 So Bottas is Mercedes' first choice, and apparently Paddy Lowe will be going to Williams whilst James Allison will be taking his place once his gardening leave at Ferrari ends. Certainly an interesting development, looks like Paddy has enough of the Merc level pressure and want to play scrappy independent. He's certainly the kind of guy Williams needs.
Bottas would be a solid number 2, and if the Merc is still the best car next season Hamilton will almost have been handed the World Championship. Pascal, don't see it happening - it would have been announced already.
Paddie Lowe has been thrown under the bus and is off to Williams. I liked Paddie until he made that unsporting call to Ham to speed up.
Despite Lowe's move, Williams have rejected Merc's bid for Bottas. http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/formula1/38282791