E.U: Leave or Stay? Your thoughts.

This isn't funny any more.

 

And today's headline is "[Former Remainer] May say's she'll 'stick to her principles' in ruling out a 2nd referendum"

Apropos of...something, the Chinese also generally think they live in a functioning Democracy

 

The French are getting ready for a no deal.
Probably everyone else is as well.

Except the Brits, which refuse to believe they're leaving with a no-deal. But also refuse to allow a second referendum. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I hope that lady at the 3 minute mark finds asylum soon.

 

I listened to the latest episode of the Remainiacs podcast earlier today. David Allen Green does an excellent job of laying out the legal realities of Brexit and rightly challenges what a second referendum would really accomplish, especially if the result was leave. Even though I will oppose Brexit in any realistic way I can, for once it's really great to hear a rational and measured opinion free of bias one way or the other. Of course the hosts are biased - as if the name doesn't give it away - but it's well worth a listen.

 

Don't get me wrong, a 2nd ref wouldn't necessarily solve the problem or be a great idea... but it is probably the easiest way (the other being politicians growing a spine before 29th March) to fix the deadlock in parliament.

 

If we have a second vote, the options are no deal, May's deal, remain and somehow no deal wins, I won't like it but it would be the first time that 'it's the will of the people,' would have any kind of credibility.

As it stands we are all being frogmarched into it regardless. Somehow the government needs to pointed in a direction and commited to it, having another public vote is the only way I can see it happening. Plus (putting my cynical hat on for a minute), splitting the leave options in two makes a remain vote far more likely. I would quite happily see it used to 'steal,' Brexit.

 

Do you think leave supports have worked out that by voting down Mrs May's deal that they've increased the likelihood of us not leaving at all, yet?

If Mrs May's deal passed they could carry on painting the EU as the bogeyman and even stir people up in to supporting sticking two fingers up at the EU when we inevitably find cutting ties nigh on impossible at the end of the transition period, they can carry on the con and rile people up into wanting to walk away.

If Mrs May's deal doesn't pass their dreams of leaving the EU all but dies as there's next to no parliamentary support for leaving without a withdrawal agreement whereas support for a 2nd referendum is growing by the day.

 

The Brexiteers are banking on the fact our leaving date has been signed into law. As far as they are concerned all they have to do to 'win' is stop anyone else from doing anything, parliamentary support or not, it's the law.

As much as I hope for a second vote and an amendment extending (or better yet postponing with no specified date) Article 50 the right wingers hold the advantage at the minute because they can win by doing nothing.

 

True but based on what MPs are saying they wouldn't allow that to happen, obviously they could fail but i expect they'd move hell and high water to prevent an accidental 'no deal'.

 

However, are the EU going to want to grant an extension to Article 50 without a clear idea from the UK government as to what they want? Granting an A50 extension without a clear and realistic plan is just kicking the problem further down the road. The EU wants to avoid a no deal, but at the same time it's not their responsibility to solve the UK's parliamentary squabbling.

 

It's my hope that the EU will trigger a second referrendum by making an extension on A50 contingent on it. But even that carries the risk of Brexiteers stimying it in Parliament.

 

AFAK the electoral commission had to approve any referendum wording and in the last one the changed the government's proposal to make it more neutral https://www.electoralcommission.org...n-recommends-change-to-eu-referendum-question

I think 3-way referendums are dodgy. a 34% win isn't going to resolve anything more than a 52% win did two yeas ago. You can say yay we get to rig it to get the result we all wanted (and I did want a remain vote), but that is goign to make the question a festering mess for a long time and will tend to drive voters to the extremes if the main parties all offer the same view. (And we now know that isn't just a problem for the conservatives).

We could have multiple questions in an 'advisory' refernedum and I can see:

1. "Do you want to leave or remain in the EU?"
2. "Do you want to leave under the terms of the Withdrawal Agreement Negotiated with the EU?"

But then phrasing the alternatives gets odd as no-deal-at-all isn't really supported by anyone at all and there has been a huge effort to explain that it means there won't be any oranges, your dog will die and Nigel Farage will marry your daughter.

What could work would be "Do you want to leave the EU and leave the single market and customs union?" but is that regarded as too long and complex.

 

and they don't want it to go beyond the EP elections in May as they want to redistribute the UK seats to underrepresented countries that aren't Germany.

 

Someone else has had the same thought... and an intriguing theory.

Meanwhile the latest poll puts Remain on 56%.

 

Probably not an extension, unless there's reasonable grounds that doing so would change anything, but cancellation only needs parliamentary approval.

If Mrs May's deal doesn't get through parliament there's only three choices left and most MPs have said they'd not allow one of those to happen, that leaves us with parliament canceling A50 or legislating for a 2nd referendum and asking for an extension.

 

Well I think 56% vote in a second leave/remain poll would be decisive. However there would be a campaign. Would Corbyn campaign this time? And on what side?

 

Whatever side he thinks would get him elected even though he is very anti-EU

 

It depends.

If May winds down the clock I believe the legal standing is that we just leave. I say 'just', there is the associated nightmare that goes along with that that only a few very well off people would like to see anyway.

 

We'd probably need a third question, something along the lines of:

1. "Do you want to leave or remain in the EU?"
Please also answer question 2 in case leave wins:
2. "Do you want to leave under the terms of the Withdrawal Agreement Negotiated with the EU?"
Please also answer question 3 in case No wins:
3: Pick one of the following:
Norway option
Canada option
No deal

 

Look at the Labour breakdown in those numbers: 82% Remain(!)
He's already in a deeply odd position of a leader not representing most of his own party's views on a key issue of the day.