I don't see Irans domestic problems warrant an attack, an attack would be war of aggression, not intervention.
Pakistan is the greater threat then Iran at current, most estimates put Iranian enrichment only at 20%, so a while till a working missile. Pakistan could likely end up with a military goverment if the situation in the country does fall apart but its uncertain at this time. The Pakistan taliban would at best bring a guerilla war to the other provinces outside of the tribal regions, against armour and air power it would be limited in success. If their is a change in leadership in Iran it would be for the better, 2009 did offer a good chance but was ultimately crushed by the current regime. Though even with a change it all depends on the US and Israel stance toward Iran, wanting nukes changing which is unlikely. I was reffering to the instability of the regime in Iran, due to the political subugation of the opposition and its people, dictators will resort to anything to stay in power, would you really want them with nukes?
Sorry, but that is BS. The Afghanistan insurgents consists, presumably, of a bunch of sandal-wearing Fundies with third-hand worn-out AK-47's and improvised IEDs. Yet they gave the Soviet army a good kicking for a decade (and won), and they have been giving the Allies a kicking for the last one (and show no sign of losing). Military armour and air power doesn't seem to bother them. I doubt that the Pakistani army will do any better --if they are not secretly on their side already. You have no idea how bad things are in Pakistan. Osama happily lived there right under the nose of the authorities for years, remember? The people and the army don't like the US (blundering about killing citizens and performing unsanctioned strikes on their territory kind of does that) and the US does not trust the government and army. The army is rife with Fundie sympathisers. Relationships are very, very strained indeed. Iran meanwhile has made several rapprochements only to be rebuffed (it's making another one right now; let's hope the US listens this time). Iran is not the problem. Pakistan is.
The soviet occupation of Afghanistan failed due to a poor soviet army, as tank's are useless in the mountain passes of Afghanistan (why usa etc doesnt have armour our their). Poorly trained soldiers (defecting to the other side) against a large force that knows the local land and the weather conditions and has extremely strong moral through their religious beleif is hard to defeat. Also the use of American surface-to-air missiles cleared the threat of Russian gunship's, making it a infantry war. While the west of Pakistan is mountain terrain where the Pakistan Taliban live, the East is flat open ground which is harder to fight against a force with armour and air power. Pakistan's current situtation both economic and political is a complete mess in the country, stability is what the country needs but it does not have it. This extract from retuers sums up the siutation about Pakistan Yet Pakistan is more fragile than ever. Aside from its many economic and security problems, it is fighting a separatist revolt in Balochistan; its army is driven by a perceived threat from both Afghanistan and India - neither of whom have recognised its borders; and its heartland Punjab province is playing host to a new and powerful Islamist/jihadi alliance whose primary slogan is “Go America Go.” Which all goes with the political and military corruption present in the country and the undeclared air war in Pakistan by the USA, a military coup is likely to be soon. My post before was lacking in detail, which i hope this one can provide as needed to discuss the topic further.
Well, few countries have foreign intelligence services within its borders fueling these domestic issues with intent to destabilize the regime. Now to your question. I don't fear an Iran with nuclear weapons, no. That doesn't mean I wish for them to have nuclear weapons, or that I would promote the spread of nuclear weapons. I don't. In the past I've stated that I thought an Iran with nuclear weapons could help to perhaps stabilize the region. I don't see that as farfetched.
Not likely. Israel's government is as extremist as Iran's (and its people as moderate as the Iranian people), but like Iran, Israel's business is to stay in business. Owning nukes keeps you in business, but using them puts everybody out of business.
Israel won't necessarily use nukes. They have enough conventional weapons to turn the entire middle east into a pretty glass bowl visible from outer space, and they're just about shady enough to do it.
And if they try, the rest of the Middle East will return fire with everything it's got. Moreover, Israel knows that it would piss off the US by upsetting the apple cart and that there won't be any backing from that quarter.
Israel needs US military support to go after Iran's nuclear program as they dont have enough to hit everything and get back safely. The US will make the call if Israeli can bomb Iran, thats very unlikely at this early stage as diplomacy is the main focus at current.
I haven't dropped into this thread for a while - interesting to see it's become a debate on nuclear arms in the region. I generally agree that Iran gaining nuclear weapons wouldn't be that big a deal. If anything it would help to stabilise the region to have somebody other than Israel with a nuclear deterrent. I also agree with the general feeling that Pakistan represent by far the biggest problem in the region. Highly unstable, almost at the point of coup/civil war, and clear support of regimes such as the Taliban from some of it's most prominent citizens. If Pakistan wasn't a nuclear power already, there'd be more serious discussions about it's position in the world. Luckily for us the best deterrent against Pakistan = India...and don't we send them aid or something? .....and we're back on topic.
Well played Fuss. Truth be told, I find it worrying that people are buying the whole "Iran is a menace" Schitck. It's quite apparently they're pretty harmless. It also makes me wonder about people when they decry nuclear weapons on others, but never actually realize their own nation might have them..
