E.U: Leave or Stay? Your thoughts.

True but one thing does have support and that's not leaving without a withdrawal agreement, they may disagree on everything else but drowning men will grasp at anything you throw them.

He can't even answer direct questions without having to write them down, often two or three at a time.

 

If there is a 2nd referendum there needs to be a clear, defined plan to vote on, rather than an undefined, amorphous label that could mean anything, allowing people to project whatever they want on to it.

This is what we're dealing with:

 

There is a way to conduct a three-choice referendum (Remain, Leave with May's deal and Leave without a deal) with a first and second preference, in which the least popular option is eliminated and second preferences are reallocated to determine the ultimate winner.

The other option would be a two-part referendum: part one would be Leave vs Remain, and if the outcome is majority Leave, then the next part would be Leave with May's deal vs Leave without a deal.

However unless there is an overwhelming (like 70+%) swing to one side or the other, there will be pissed-off near-majority who lost, and the country will remain divided. Problem is, Cameron opened Pandora's box. No matter what people felt about EU membership, it had little impact on their daily lives; it was just a personal opinion. But Cameron asked the Question that should not be asked, thereby making EU membership a Thing, and creating a fertile ecosystem for dormant hostilities towards the EU to grow. And now people have nailed their colours to the mast, and have identified themselves with their in- and out-groups, and the nation is consciously split. And it will take a long time for that to wear off, because people by their nature do nothing as well as group-think.

 

If there was a 2nd referendum my guess is it would be the same two choices leave without withdrawal agreement or remain, Mrs May's deal probably won't feature as parliament would've already ruled it out.

 

The new no-deal Leave campaign would make an interesting contrast to the previous, cake-and-eat-it, no downsides, all upsides, we hold all the cards one.

Meanwhile the Brexit gift keeps on giving...

And giving…

And giving...

 

What I can't figure out is where the Nasty Party aims to find support following Brexit. They're already exploiting the unemployed, underemployed and sick to the point of murdering them. They're starting to eat in to the finances of pensioners, one of their traditional demographic bases. The working class are going to be furious once the realities of Brexit are unmistakable, so where to they go from there? The only option I can see is an attempt to instil totalitarian control measures. It's beginning to look a lot like Norsefire.

 

Tbf while JC is in opposition I doubt they really care to much for the time being.

 

I'm not sure that keeping the box shut was going to work for that much longer. It's unclear that with or without the UK, the "European Project" can go on forever on the basis of "Now run along and don't worry your pretty head about it". By not talking about the things that are not to be talked about, you let people be drawn those that do talk, the extreme right and left.

 

Actually it totally would have. Demographically, Eurosceptics are dying off and younger Europhiles are reaching voting age. The UK population has already gone beyond tipping point just by natural attrition. In another decade the UK would have been very much Remain. Brexit will only accelerate that.

The European project will work itself out. Getting 28 countries to work together at all has been pretty much a miracle. All the internal conflict is nothing exceptional; it is in fact part of the course. It is growing with these tensions and divisions that gives the EU strength in the long term.

 

But a 'pick two' three option vote where the options are Leave, Leave and Remain is no vote at all, because every single voter must vote leave. It would be a good way for May to force her deal through, because Remainers will take her deal instead of No Deal and Brexiteers will take her deal over Remain, so she can dance off into the sunset having won with 90+ percent of the vote.

You under estimate the gullibility of the old and the stupid. The number of people I've heard telling me how the EU changed their benefits, or how they get less because Polish people move here to claim Jobseekers, or that they can't be seen at their doctors because it's full of foreigners. If the Daily Express says it's the fault of Labour and the EU, then it's the fault of Labour and the EU and they'll ride that train all the way to the end of the line. Since I'm in healthcare I have to be nice to them too, which is all the more galling.

 

But that's the thing, lacking any relationship to Europe there's no scapegoat to pass the blame on to.

 

They'll just find someone else other.

 

And political conflict is far more favourable than physical conflict, Europe is a far less warmongery place thanks to the EU existing.

 

They are our nearest neighbour and we'll have an extremely lopsided relationship with them in the event of no deal. Every little thing will still be blamed on 'Europe' because it's a nebulous, faceless other thing.

Or, once the planned influx of Commonwealth migration begins (to make up for the massive labour shortage that will come from blocking EU migrant workers), they'll go back to the tried and true staple of blaming the brown people.

 

https://mobile.twitter.com/ByDonkeys

An interesting twitter feed about billboarders posting politicians past tweets.

Would like to see them respond to their own past comments sometime.

 

I fear the answer will be rather simple... people with a skin complexion that doesn't equal "burst into flames when left in the sun for 5 minutes".

 

That doesn't really hold water as people may well turn more eurosceptic as they get older, in the same way as they typically turn more Conservative.

 

I'm not exactly sure that's true. People become more entrenched versions of themselves, and the culture shifts around them, giving the illusion that they're more conservative rather than changing cultural norms. Taking film as a cultural barometer, the censors were upset by a flushing toilet in 1960's Psycho; 20 years later it was The Evil Dead (40 years after that I'm still pissed that the Starz show was cancelled because it wasn't capturing audience attention).

Digital Natives will remain Digital Natives, and the disconnect between Capitalism and Democracy will only become more apparent.

 

Shouldn't we be reading the polls too much since they're unreliable of late. The polls pointed to slight Miliband win or hung parliament in 2015, pointed to remain victory, pointed to May's whopping win. Fair enough survation was pretty accurate but yougov was like the others; pretty fair way. I am not going to be all giddy by the polling.

 

Politicians will never address what they said in the past in a meaningful way.

It'll always be that's not what I meant by that I, I meant something else, you don't have all the facts like I do - but no, I can't share them with you right now. Etcetera etcetera.