E.U: Leave or Stay? Your thoughts.

You are forgetting the contingent of right wing thugs calling their MPs and leaving letters at the office every day calling for no deal and making not so veiled threats about it. They may be bordering on brown shirts, but they are thugs who vote and MPs are nothing if not like bobble heads, they'll wobble in the direction of whoever pokes the hardest. I'll bet a lot of Brexiteers are only Brexiteers because they think it will keep them in office.

 

The EU in no way whatsoever will ever want to be seen as holding a member state hostage against its will. So the UK will leave on the 29th. That is what Article 50 says. Whether there is a deal or not.

What will happen is that the GBP will tank, and businesses will just quietly move to the EU or wind down business. No point arguing with rabid fanatics --bad for business. There will be job losses, Japanese car manufacturers packing up, more empty shops on the high street; more council budget cuts, decline in social welfare and public service infrastructure; it will be the slow death of a thousand cuts; more austerity and decline will follow. But it won't be because of Brexit, oh no!

Exactly.

 

I believe there is zero political appetite to attempt such a thing.

But even if there was, I don't see how it could work:
The EU could only attempt that while the UK is still a member
The UK would almost certainly mount a legal challenge over it
Since the EU would do so while the UK was a member it would end up at the ECJ
But the ECJ ruling would arrive after Article 50 runs out based on time

I hope MPs will reject those voices tomorrow and think about the health of the country rather than worrying about how some bigots would vote in a hypothetical election.

 

I think that they will worry about threats to personal safety, chicken out and vote for no-deal and rationalise their choice later.

 

Unless A50 is revoked or an extension is granted by the EU at the request of the UK.

EU leaders have already said that that is a possibility although there has to be a reason for it in order for it to be granted.

The only reason I can see that happening is if the UK say they will be having a referendum. Time wise that would work as EU elections are coming up and time would be needed in the UK to organise a referendum.

The fat lady hasn't sung yet but she has finished doing her warm up routine.

 

We shall certainly see. It was just a thought, one that I think would be hilarious if it came true.

 

It's what I don't get though, some MPs and commentators going "but Brexit may not happen now".

How? Unless A50 is revoked, a magical new deal appears or a referendum reverses it the legal default is leaving with no deal.

Leave with no deal/Remain. That should have been the first question and should certainly be the second if there is one.

That has only really ever been the true choice, leave the unicorns and 15 imaginary ways to leave out of it.

 

I think it's a case of trying to scare the hardliners into backing May, our option or no option etc.

 

Article 50 is not going to be revoked.



Extension will only happen if the UK holds another Referendum or another GE. Now I know the views on that are like:



But I think it's:



No deal is the default outcome.

 

If i was a betting man my money would be on maybot ragequiting as soon as her deal fails to pass parliament.

 

It already has failed to pass...

...twice.

 

Which makes her referendum situation all the funnier. She says we can't keep voting, but she presented the same deal twice. Sounds a shade like double standards to me!

Then again, everything in politics is double standards I suppose.

 

Who would have thought a tiny government, propped up by a tiny party from a country that has no funtioning parliament, wouldn't be able to resolve the tiny problem that resulted from asking an ambiguos question?

You'd have to be a sage to see how it's turned out so far...

 

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My cat could chunder up less of a mess.

 

I think anyone, or thing, could have a tactical chunder out of a moving vehicle and make less of a mess.

 

IIRC correctly the EU can't force a member to do anything, there was a legal decision made on that point when one of the European courts heard a case on the unilateral nature of withdrawing A50 and if the EU could refuse a request to withdraw.

To paraphrase the judges agreed that because the sovereignty of members is in the founding treaties they can't be forced to do something (leave the EU in this case) against their clearly expressed will (clearly expressed in a notification to withdraw A50 in the case).

Obviously it depends on how the vote goes today but assuming a 'no deal' exist gets voted down it will depend on the amendments that get tabled tomorrow, the extension vote is amendable so there could be a range of choices being voted on, anything from ask for extension so we can implement X different deal, a second referendum, revocation, etc, etc.

 

The only way I see this being resolved is a vote on Leave with no deal / Remain.

ERG are saying if a no deal Brexit is voted against today then it is a betrayl of Brexit. Right, give the people a vote on those two options, that wasn't the original referendum vote, that puts up two clear options. The ERG way and the Remain way, a result would be clear, no unicorns, no nothing.

Edit: Now there's talk of the Attorney General coming up with some "fresh" advice. Now, I imagine that's the Tory MP talking rather him talking more as the AG, as the AG, gave his advice.

So May's 'deal' may not be dead....

 

Too late. Everybody has got a hard-on for a no-deal Brexit: the ERG, the DUP, Boris Johnson, Farage, and about 60% of Leave voters. It's happening.

 

I'd love to play you at poker.