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The Coronavirus Thread

Discussion in 'Serious' started by d_stilgar, 13 Mar 2020.

  1. RedFlames

    RedFlames ...is not a Belgian football team

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    People did exactly that both here and abroad where they used [or contemplated using] similar algorithms, and the Govt and/or Ofqual went 'we'll do it anyway'.
     
  2. Mister_Tad

    Mister_Tad Will work for nuts Super Moderator

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    Yes, but at a point that it was already too late to actually do anything about it without breaking the machine. Which would have been the correct option - "hey looks like we screwed this up, let's put it all on hold for a bit whilst we figure it out"
     
  3. RedFlames

    RedFlames ...is not a Belgian football team

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    Which takes us back to -

    See disaster coming
    Do absolutely nothing
    Go on Holiday
    Three Word Slogan
     
  4. RedFlames

    RedFlames ...is not a Belgian football team

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    So williamson is claiming he knew nothing about the algo until it all kicked off -






    So we've got Hancock saying he's not responsible for PHE [even though he is], and Williamson saying he wasn't paying attention to what Ofqual were doing. Meanwhile Boris is on holiday, again.

    Paying attention to your job is for plebs apparently.
     
  5. Anfield

    Anfield Well-Known Member

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    Of course the Government didn't know.
    That is why I was able to link a 319 page pdf released by the Government about the algorithm and it's use on the previous page of this thread.

    But hey, screeching like a hysteric harpy at a specific brand of Ice cream is probably a more fun way to pass the taxpayer funded time than reading technical documents.

    Oh and here is the blog post the Ministry of State Propaganda put out before the u-turn:
    https://dfemedia.blog.gov.uk/2020/08/14/misleading-a-level-claims-debunked/
     
  6. RedFlames

    RedFlames ...is not a Belgian football team

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    Yeah, but apart from that... totally clueless...
     
  7. RedFlames

    RedFlames ...is not a Belgian football team

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    And right on cue the Express is claiming this is a bad thing and it's another example of snowflake millenials not knowing what's good for them.
     
  8. Mister_Tad

    Mister_Tad Will work for nuts Super Moderator

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    Though probably for very different reasons, I think the U-Turn is a bad thing.
    It's an attempt at solving a political problem that does no such thing, and creates practical problems in its wake. At least from a university point of view (yes I know there are other uses for A-Levels, university admissions just happen to be something I've become very familiar with over the years)

    On results day (or rather, two days before results day), schools need to book in their places as quickly as possible to guarantee revenue for the next 3+ years, needing to work out historical acceptance and no-show rates to get as close to capacity as possible and no higher, and ensure as well as possible that the students accepted will be able to complete the course. Though the process starts well sooner when places are offered and historical miss rates are taken into account (i.e. approx 40-50% missing their predicted results).

    So this time around due to the sh_ show, there were broadly two ways of running admission.
    1) Do it properly, throw out the policy book because it's no longer valid in these circumstances, throw people at it to give it the human touch and individually assess all of your misses in terms of historical results, mocks, predictions, interviews and anything else at your disposal, even if that basically means no sleep for two days for your entire school faculty.
    2) Play the numbers game, go into clearing with as low a target as you can to fill your numbers. Job done.

    Those schools that did 1) likely ended on a set of offers broadly similar to what would have been, though arguably even "fairer" as it's a significantly more complete assessment of candidates than simply looking at A-Levels and calling it. These schools can now find themselves having filled their courses, now having the same number of students again rock up having now made their offer (remember historically 50% of students missed their predictions), demanding their place. So they can either take them all on and teaching quality suffers for everyone because of it, or they can say "sorry we're full" and send them packing - leaving the students that missed out on their first choice no better off, but shifting the (totally just) blame from the stupid algorithm to (unjustly) universities. Furthermore some students will almost certainly get lawyered up and do their best to cause any form of chaos that they can.

    The ones that did 2) are even more screwed with numbers, having accepted a large number of students that should not and would not have been offered under normal circumstances to fill the quota, and now not only do they have the 50% of would-have-been misses to account for, they also have their moderated-but-would-have-been hits to take on as well.

    And both of these create a situation where the universities lower in the food chain could be running into financial woes over the coming years (and as such quality of teaching and facilities suffers, and remember they're already low in the food chain) since the intake at those higher will be inflated, and any penalties for doing so, intentionally or not, have been removed.

    The right answer? Well it's a bit late for "right" now... and whilst I'm usually pretty reluctant to make such comments because I'm sure it's much easier to be an armchair policymaker than an actual one, coming forward and saying "Hey everyone, turns out we really screwed this up, but these are the reasons we can't just make it go away and you need to trust the universities to sort it out. Here's a sacrificial head on a platter" was IMO a better call.
     
  9. Anfield

    Anfield Well-Known Member

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    The way I see it: The only workable alternatives would have required coherent planning and joined up thinking from the moment it started to look like exams might not takes place as planned and unfortunately those two things are anathema to the shambles inhabiting Westminster / No 10.

    As for some Universities getting into financial trouble, yes that is a possibility...

    ...the bailouts will be a price we will just have to stomach as punishment for the lack of proper planning.
    Edit:
    Unless you are the Torygraph, then you are cheering for them to go bust:wallbash::wallbash::wallbash:
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...s-have-become-indoctrination-camps-reckoning/
     
    Last edited: 18 Aug 2020
  10. Nexxo

    Nexxo * Prefab Sprout – The King of Rock 'n' Roll

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    No aspiring dictatorship likes intellectuals.
     
  11. Mr_Mistoffelees

    Mr_Mistoffelees is not The Piper at The Gates of Dawn

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    I see the Tories as more like a kakistocracy.
     
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  12. Anfield

    Anfield Well-Known Member

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    Yep, you don't see many professors clapping like sycophantic seals when dear leader manages to *checks notes* drink water...



    Edit:
    Torygraph doubles down on intellectuals bad:
     
    Last edited: 19 Aug 2020
  13. Anfield

    Anfield Well-Known Member

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    And the algorithm continues to cause problems...

    But the best bit:
    https://www.theguardian.com/educati...appeals-against-gcse-grades-that-are-too-high
     
  14. Pete J

    Pete J Employed scum

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    Meh. Is anyone going to be happy with any solution?

    I wish politicians would at least have the decency to stick with a decision, rather than yield to the popular view.
     
  15. Nexxo

    Nexxo * Prefab Sprout – The King of Rock 'n' Roll

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    I wish politicians would at least make competent decisions.
     
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  16. liratheal

    liratheal Sharing is Caring

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    I wish more politicians would implement policies/solutions that weren't conceived by skin sacks full of cold sick.
     
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  17. adidan

    adidan Guesswork is still work

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    I guess it depends how you look at it.

    If decisions are made to give out unchallenged government contracts and powers to unelected associates I think they've been very competent with some of their decisions.
     
  18. Anfield

    Anfield Well-Known Member

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    They are being consistent in their strategy at least:

    1: Promise the sky
    2: Wing it
    3: Let their cronies screw up due to a lack of oversight and planning
    4: Defend the inevitably bad outcome
    5: U-turn

    And they've rigidly stuck to that 5 step plan with a devotion that would make religious cults blush.
     
  19. RedFlames

    RedFlames ...is not a Belgian football team

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    6. Throw civil servant, only tenuously linked to ****up under the bus.
     
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  20. Mr_Mistoffelees

    Mr_Mistoffelees is not The Piper at The Gates of Dawn

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    The most important role in our "government" is that of the official scapegoat pool, ready to take the blame when ministers get it wrong, again and again and again.
     

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