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E.U: Leave or Stay? Your thoughts.

Discussion in 'Serious' started by TheBlackSwordsMan, 22 Feb 2016.

  1. Corky42

    Corky42 What did walle eat for breakfast?

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    It's pretty much a given that it will continue to change in the same manner as it's done for the last 40+ years, it serves its members and they're the ones who get to shape what it should or shouldn't do, it's also not going to go anywhere, that's just wishful thinking from people who don't understand what the EU is and don't like the idea of small countries acting in unison to amplify their sovereign powers.

    No matter what shape a future EU takes though I pretty much guarantee that if we do leave there's going to be calls to rejoin and support for that will only grow as time passes, I'm not sure people fully comprehend how insignificant the UK is on the global stage, even more so with the damage the referendum has done to our reputation.

    Even if we're being generous and say it will only take a year to replace each international treaty that we're currently party to we're still talking about 150+ years before our bespoke deal with the rest of the world is done.
     
    Last edited: 27 Dec 2018
  2. adidan

    adidan End of season avatar. 50% reduction.

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    The problem the EU will have is if those nations start diverging from the 'unison' in their attitudes and behaviours.

    The things some countries are finding 'acceptable' is starting to be very worrying, just look at Hungary, Czechia and so on.

    Like I say, i'd rather be in it and try and nip it in the bud than deal with the potential aftereffects from the outside.
     
  3. Nexxo

    Nexxo Queue Jumper

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    None of the countries that are showing worrying right-wing tendencies want to leave the EU. Some mutter about it a bit, but when those right-wing parties are asked outright, they declare no plans to leave. Especially the A8, which are net recipients of EU money and have good ol' Russia breathing down their necks eager to welcome them back into the fold.

    So the EU will continue to bicker internally, but also continue to show a united front to the rest of the world. Which will now also include the UK. And the UK is about to get an object lesson in humility.
     
  4. Archtronics

    Archtronics Well-Known Member

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    The EU's future will boil down to how the single currency/economic issues are resolved, getting rid of individual sovereign states and federalising is probably the best way forward but unlikely.
     
  5. fix-the-spade

    fix-the-spade Well-Known Member

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    Best thing for the EU to be is a facilitator for trade and travel, not trying to overtly impose governance. The single currency is and will always be a terrible idea, it hands the largest economies (Germany and France) a permanent advantage in trade, but at the same time leaves them vulnerable to the mis-steps and debts of the weaker economies that can't compete and so have to increase borrowing to operate (Greece, Spain, Estonia etc).

    Germany has done very well out of the Euro, although they don't always feel that way about it. Greece in particular has done very badly out of it, having been encouraged into massive spending and borrowing off the back of 'their' strong currency, then having no means to de-value or re-negotiate when the bottom fell out, effectively losing control of fiscal policy in the process.

    You would think look at the US and China's problems with single a single currency and government covering vastly differing economic areas would put anyone off (Russia doesn't count, Russia is weird), but everyone thinks they're going to be California or New Jersey, when they're more likely to end up being West Virginia.

    As much as I am very much pro remain, going for a United States of Europe is too far the other way.
     
  6. Corky42

    Corky42 What did walle eat for breakfast?

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    Even if that completely failed there'd still be an EU, a battered, bruised and probably smaller EU but it would still be there as an institution. I'm no fan of giving up currency issuer status and it's where i would draw a red-line, that's what i find most concerning, that in X years we'll rejoin and part of that will involve giving up our sovereign currency issuing status.
    That overtly imposed governance is imposed by the members themselves, in the same manner as our government overtly imposes things on the different regions of the UK with the consent of MPs, saying they overtly impose governance is like saying the US government overtly imposes on individual states despite each state being a part of the house and senate.
     
    Last edited: 28 Dec 2018
  7. adidan

    adidan End of season avatar. 50% reduction.

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    I'm wasn't saying them wanting to leave, more how far will the EU let countries go and what will (can) they do about it?

    I mean when it comes to major matters if there's more than one country involved the EU can appear powerless. Take Poland and Hungary who will veto any sanctions against each other the EU try to impose fpr example.

    I'm sorry but to also minimize problems as bickering is almost as misguided as saying the UK will do wonderfully great outside of the EU.

    There are big issues in the EU that need dealing with and I want us in there dealing with them. Not on the outside as observers and certainly not on the inside ignoring them.

    There are no winners in the UK leaving,
     
  8. Nexxo

    Nexxo Queue Jumper

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    The EU is somehow managing to get 27 countries to work together in what, even with all its complications, frictions and differences, is a remarkably coherent system. I think that it will manage these crises also.

    It will also manage the UK leaving, and it most probably not let it back in for the next few decades, even if the UK changes its mind and begs. EEA, perhaps, but politically it'll be like:
    [​IMG]
     
  9. adidan

    adidan End of season avatar. 50% reduction.

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    Not saying that it isn't or it won't.

    Oh it will manage but it will also be impacted.

    As for the gifs, they do nothing for me. As a remainer with an EU partner I find it a bit too serious for gifs and, what often comes across as, a certain level of gloating at this clust***.
     
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  10. Nexxo

    Nexxo Queue Jumper

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    Well, as you know I am an EU immigrant NHS clinician citizen of nowhere/bargaining chip/queue jumper with a British partner, and frankly if I don't strategically deploy some black humour now and then I will lose my sanity and humanity to this Brexit thing. So occasionally, I will gif. No offence meant.
     
  11. Corky42

    Corky42 What did walle eat for breakfast?

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    It will let the countries go as far as the countries want, that's what democracy is, if there's more right wing governments and politicians then there will be a more right wing EU.

    I'll admit that how far an individual country can go is limited due to an individual country being out numbered but the same is true of any democratic system, you'll have the extremes at either end and they often cause the 'center' ground to shift but the extreme ends of the spectrum never get to set policies.
    Yea that one made me laugh, it's almost like it didn't occur to them that if they tried to apply sanctions to two nations for breaking the rules that they'd team up and veto each others sanctions, naive or what. :)

    I suspect when they get that mess sorted there'll be some sort of change to the treaties to prevent such a thing from happening again.
     
  12. Archtronics

    Archtronics Well-Known Member

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    Depends how it fails, chances are it’s Germany that pulls out of the euro and does a blanket conversion of euros to Deutschmark. That will pretty much make all other euro currency’s worthless overnight.

    At that point I think that Russian plan would pretty much follow through.
     
  13. loftie

    loftie Well-Known Member

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    The discussion around UK/EU partners made me think of this.



    Sad state of affairs with the service folk with EU partners and an interesting discussion about Russia.
     
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  14. Corky42

    Corky42 What did walle eat for breakfast?

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    We, in the collective sense, seem to have differing opinions as some people seem to be saying Germany has done pretty well out of the Euro (fix-the-spade a few posts ago) and you're saying Germany would pull out. I think i understand where both opinions are coming from, they'd be fed up bailing other out, their running a surplus, or something along those line, however if people think Germany has done both well and bad out of the Euro does that mean it's neutral for Germany.

    Speaking of Russia i found this blog post that talks about the dodgy dealing, influences, and neoliberal links to Russia, I still find it utterly stunning that people believe Brexit is going to improve their lot in life and...
    He sat down and had a talk with Professor Thom Brooks, head of Law at Durham University, a few days later that's also interesting to listen to.
     
    Last edited: 28 Dec 2018
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  15. loftie

    loftie Well-Known Member

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    Yea i saw that one too. It was pretty good, I linked the other one mostly due to discussions around partners. Also I think it's good to have service people saying they are against Brexit, because as he mentions the general perception is that they aren't and that idea is being spread.
     
  16. Archtronics

    Archtronics Well-Known Member

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    The euro was beneficial to Germany because all the "inefficient" countries like Greece and Italy kept the value of the Euro lower, which benefitted there exporters.
    However all those surpluses started to build up in German banks so they lent it to those inefficient countries so they could buy more German (and the rest) stuff etc etc.
    Then there's a crash and all that debt gets shifted into public ownership to save the banking system, which in turn will require those countries to be bailed out.
    Eventually the amount of debt is going to be to big for Germany to bail out so its a double edged sword.
     
  17. Corky42

    Corky42 What did walle eat for breakfast?

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    I think the people who engineered Brexit couldn't care less about service men and women, their partners, mothers, fathers, or family. I know that sounds harsh but i guess their just part of the collateral damage in the same manner as the 'ordinary' working people they co-opted into voting for something that's going to make their lives worse.

    The blog post i linked to earlier talking about 55 Tufton Street describes how such people are dispensable when it comes to achieving their goal of a low-tax, small state, deregulated economy.
    That makes more sense, it's unknown if that debt is going to continue to increase overtime though and AFAIK Germany didn't have to buy, is it the ECB, debt bonds. Ultimately though the single currency, as a word and possibly in some future, may have been a good idea like the single currency in America was a good idea, however it was really badly implemented, designed, engineered, or whatever IMO.

    Like i said adopting the single currency would be where I'd draw a red-line as the, currently, untapped power a sovereign currency issuer has is immeasurable. What's most concerning, to me, is that Brexit will adversely effect peoples live so much that there'll be clamoring to rejoin the EU at some point in the future at any cost.
     
    Last edited: 28 Dec 2018
  18. RedFlames

    RedFlames ...is not a Belgian football team

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    Tbh I wouldn't put it past the Brexit mob to **** Brexit up so spectacularly that their desire to have less EU results in the UK having more EU.
     
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  19. Anfield

    Anfield Well-Known Member

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    Good news, I solved the Brexit problem.

    I went to visit my aunt who lives on the continent over Christmas and since I felt guilty about not having cared enough for relatives in the past her entire brood of kids has been spoiled rotten, so just wait until they grow up and the EU will fall:grin:
     
  20. Nexxo

    Nexxo Queue Jumper

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    Alternatively, you have secured plenty of EU-based relatives to crash out with in the future. :D
     

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